Rum, Religion, and Votes

Alfred E. Smith's defeat in the presidential election of 1928 has often been cited as a classic example of a candidate beaten by his own weakness and the prejudices of the voters rather than by his opponent's strength. His religion, his stand on prohibition, and his association in the minds of American voters with the urban and immigrant sectors of the population have been considered the key factors in his loss to Herbert Hoover by 6,000,000 popular votes and 444 electoral votes.

Using proved statistical methods and carefully selected data, Ruth Silva evaluates the effects of such factors as religion, prohibition, and metropolitanism on Smith's campaign and concludes that he was in fact a strong candidate. In a dissenting opinion, she suggests that his party affiliation hurt him more than did his Roman Catholicism and his advocacy of repeal and that indeed these two factors may well have helped him

A noted authority on American elections uses modern statistical methods to measure the impact of such factors as religion and prohibition on Al Smith's presidential campaign.