"Crying
Wolf" and accusing the Intelligence Community and especially
the CIA of "underestimating" a threat, is a long-established
gambit used by ideologically driven conservatives to drum up support
for their jingoist policies. The current discussions about the famous
16 words in President Bush's State of the Union message resonates
loudly with the attempts by right-wingers to alter the CIA's analyses
of Soviet military strengths and objectives in the mid -1970s, the
infamous Team B episode. Anne Hessing Cahn's richly documented account
of that episode, Killing Détente; The Right Attacks the
CIA, The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1998, makes clear
how dangerous it is to tailor threat assessments to make political
statements.
Two things tie the present situation and the earlier period together:
people and methodology. In both cases, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz,
and Richard Perle played key roles. They were instrumental in backing
the bodies that could be used to dispute more nuanced views of threats
facing the United States in both instances and they provided the
intellectual methodology that distorted the available intelligence.
By aggressively over-emphasizing worst-case scenarios, they argued
for policies based on judgments that were later shown to be wrong.
As Dr. Cahn's book makes clear, after the collapse of the Soviet
Union and the opening of its archives, it was shown that the CIA's
estimates were more accurate than Team B's account of events which
was wrong on almost every count. Today, we have likewise learned
that reports of Iraqi attempts to acquire uranium from Niger were
based on forgeries, recognized as such by the CIA.
Alternative threat assessments can be useful if they are as balanced
and as objective as possible. But when they are ideologically driven,
they can force the Intelligence Community to lean towards policy
rather than rely on hard evidence. When that happens policy makers
are depriving themselves of the best available information, misleading
the American public, and endangering the lives of our fighting forces. Killing Détente, The Right Attacks the CIA provides
a trenchant body of evidence outlining this process and the dangers
that it conceals.
Killing
Detente tells the story of a major episode of intelligence
intervention in politics in the mid-1970s that led to the derailing
of detente between the Soviet Union and the United States and to
the resurgence of the Cold War in the following decade. Although
the basic outlines of the story are already known, Anne Cahn succeeded
in getting many previously declassified documents released and uses
these, supplemented by seventy interviews with principal players,
to add much greater depth and detail to our understanding of this
troubling event in U.S. history.
In
the mid-1970s a very controversial intelligence estimate was performed
by people outside the government. They were given access to our
most secret files and leaked their report to the press when Jimmy
Carter was elected president. This study, which became known as
"The Team B Report," became the intellectual forbearer of the "window
of vulnerability" and led to the demise of detente between the Soviet
Union and the United States. Team B was the fundamental turning
point in renewing the Cold War in the 1980s. The debate over the
leaked report moved the center of arms control policy strongly to
the right from where it had been during the years of detente. Team
B presaged the triumph of Ronald Reagan and a military buildup on
a scale unprecedented in peacetime that left present and future
generations with the most crippling debt in our nation's history.
This book is about attempts to destroy
improved relations between the United States and the Soviet Union
in the 1970s. Those opposed to the easing of tensions between the
two countries used every means available, including accusing the
Central Intelligence Agency with understating the threat posed by
the Soviets. Charging the CIA this way seems preposterous now. |